The Math of the GOP Nomination
J. Randolph Evans
Column No. 1106 (2/3/12) - UPDATED through Nevada Caucuses
For all the 2012 GOP candidates, it is the math that makes securing the nomination so complicated. There will be 2,165 delegates to the Republican National Convention in August in Tampa, Florida. In order to win the Republican Nomination, a Presidential candidate must have 1,144 delegates. To put this in perspective, only 131 delegates (less than10%) have been won. In fact, the candidate with the most delegates (former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney) has only 81 delegates.
This seems rather amazing given all of the media attention so far. From the Iowa caucuses to the Florida primary to the Nevada caucuses seems like an eternity for most voters, yet there are still 45 more states (plus American territories) to go. Already, there have been more swings than the crazy boat ride at White Water park. Just when the media thinks things are sewn up, voters send the signal that they are not done yet.
Between now and Super Tuesday, there will be four caucuses - Maine (24 delegates), Colorado (36 delegates), Minnesota (40 delegates) and Washington (43 delegates) - and two primaries, Arizona (29 delegates) and Michigan (30 delegates).
These four caucuses (before being apportioned) decide just 143 delegates. The primaries decide just 59. The total is 202 delegates - if all the contests were winner-take all. With the single exception of Arizona, they are not. Instead, states apportion between the winner and
the other candidates receiving votes. (To put it in context, if
Governor Romney wins the 2012 caucuses by his 2008 margins, he has around 135 delegates).
Basically, none of the candidates will have much more than about 200 delegates coming into Super Tuesday . That is less than 20% of the delegates needed to win the nomination.
Then comes March 6, 2012 - Super Tuesday.
Caucuses will be held in Alaska, Idaho, and North Dakota. Combined, those states pick 87 delegates. To put that number in context, Georgia alone picks 76 delegates.
The other big GOP delegate prizes on Super Tuesday are Ohio (with 66 delegates); Tennessee (58 delegates); Virginia (49 delegates); Oklahoma
(43 delegates); Massachusetts (41 delegates); and Vermont (17 delegates). In all, on Super Tuesday, 436 delegates are at play - almost 4 times the number selected to date.
By the time Super Tuesday is over, 22 states will have held either caucuses or primaries. To say that Super Tuesday will have a major impact, if not decide the GOP nomination, would be a gross understatement.
There are a few possibilities for Super Tuesday. One possibility is that a single candidate wins all of the Super Tuesday states - unlikely.
The more likely scenario is that the states split. If that happens, the main focus will be on Ohio, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and GEORGIA. A sweep of these four states would be big. They represent 243 delegates - likely more than any one candidate will have heading into Super Tuesday.
Even then, it is a long way from locking down the nomination.
Then, beginning on Super Tuesday through March 10, there is the Wyoming caucus (29 delegates). Just four days after Super Tuesday, on March 10, 2012, there are caucuses in Guam (9 delegates), Kansas (40 delegates) and the Virgin Islands (9 delegates).
On March 13, 2012, there are more southern primaries in Alabama (50
delegates) and Mississippi (40 delegates) and caucuses in Hawaii (20
delegates) and American Samoa (9 delegates).
Then the pace really picks up. During the balance of March, there are 3 primaries. In April, there are 9 with the biggest prize being Texas with a whopping 155 delegates. In all, 484 delegates are selected in April.
May has 7 primaries with June (and its 5 primaries) containing the biggest prize - California with another whopping number - 172 delegates.
In all, 615 delegates get picked in May and June - over half the number needed for the nomination..
The last GOP primary is on June 26, 2012 in Utah.
In 2008, the Democratic nomination contest between Senator Barack Obama and Senator Hillary Clinton extended into June. It ended up being 'Super delegates' that put Senator Obama over the top. (Super delegates are delegates by status, like party chairs, not election.)
Senator Clinton did not formally end her bid for the Democratic nomination until June 7, 2008 - four days after winning the South Dakota primary.
It is always possible that there might not be a Republican nominee until the Republican National Convention. Insiders call this a 'brokered convention.' Basically, there are around 412 Super delegates (which means they could put a candidate over the top or decide to be kingmakers at the Convention). While cable news producers dream of a 'brokered convention,' it is very unlikely. Instead, look for the Super Tuesday states to set the stage for the GOP's 2012 nominee.
Vanessa Mussenden | Legal Secretary to
J. Randolph Evans, Shari L. Klevens and Matthew Weiss McKenna Long & Aldridge LLP
303 Peachtree Street | Suite 5300 Atlanta, Ga 30308
Tel: 404.527.4596| Fax: 404.527.4198| vmussenden@mckennalong.com
CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE:
This e-mail and any attachments contain information from the law firm of McKenna Long & Aldridge LLP, and are intended solely for the use of the named recipient or recipients. This e-mail may contain privileged attorney/client communications or work product. Any dissemination of this e-mail by anyone other than an intended recipient is strictly prohibited. If you are not a named recipient, you are prohibited from any further viewing of the e-mail or any attachments or from making any use of the e-mail or attachments. If you believe you have received this e-mail in error, notify the sender immediately and permanently delete the e-mail, any attachments, and all copies thereof from any drives or storage media and destroy any printouts of the e-mail or attachments.